La flambée des coûts du caoutchouc, la faible demande

The tire market in 2026 faced a dilemma: soaring prices of raw materials such as natural rubber, coupled with weak market demand and high inventory levels, put pressure on tire companies' profits. On February 25, 2026, the main rubber futures price reached 17,240 yuan/ton, a surge of over 2,000 yuan in just one month, or more than 15%, compared to 14,500 yuan/ton in November 2025 and 15,000 yuan/ton before the Lunar New Year. This increase was overwhelming for small and medium-sized tire companies.

On February 25, 2026, the main rubber futures price settled at 17,240 yuan/ton. While this figure did not reach the historical high, the increase was significant—in November 2025, rubber prices were stable at around 14,500 yuan/ton, and before the Lunar New Year, they only hovered around 15,000 yuan/ton. In just one month, the price surged by over 2,000 yuan per ton, an increase of more than 15%, catching many small and medium-sized tire companies off guard.

The recent surge in rubber prices is no accident, driven by a confluence of factors. During the Spring Festival holiday, the overseas natural rubber market initially fell before rising. Thailand, a major global rubber exporter, saw its raw material prices continue to rise, providing strong cost support for the domestic rubber market.

Simultaneously, the US government's ruling regarding the "illegality of Trump's tariffs" boosted market sentiment, further pushing up global commodity prices. Data from the Shanghai Futures Exchange shows that on February 24th, the main rubber contract had risen to 17,030 yuan/ton, a single-day increase of 640 yuan, and continued to climb slightly the following day to 17,240 yuan/ton, demonstrating a rapid upward trend.

More noteworthy is the rapid transmission of the natural rubber price increase to synthetic rubber, creating a situation of "both rubbers rising simultaneously." As of February 25th, the main synthetic rubber contract price was 13,045 yuan/ton, an increase of nearly 13% compared to 11,500 yuan/ton in late January. These two types of raw materials account for a combined 54% of tire manufacturing costs; if steel costs are added (9%), these three items alone account for 63% of the total cost.

Coupled with fluctuating prices of chemical raw materials such as carbon black and accelerators, as well as continuously rising labor and logistics costs, tire companies' production costs have skyrocketed. For some small and medium-sized enterprises, unit production costs have increased by more than 10% compared to the end of last year, severely squeezing profit margins.

Low capacity utilization has further exacerbated the cost burden on companies. Data from Longzhong Research shows that as of February 12, 2026, the capacity utilization rate of sample semi-steel tire companies was 56.40%, a decrease of 15.69 percentage points month-on-month and 8.88 percentage points year-on-year; the capacity utilization rate of sample all-steel tire companies was 40.55%, a decrease of 19.90 percentage points month-on-month and 13.74 percentage points year-on-year.

During the Spring Festival, many companies suspended operations, and the capacity utilization rates of semi-steel and all-steel tires once fell to around 12% and 13%, respectively. Idle capacity has led to high unit fixed costs, plunging companies into a dilemma of "losing money whether producing or stopping."

However, the cost pressures have not translated into product costs. Tire manufacturers, who should have raised prices accordingly, were forced to lower prices to survive due to weak market demand and high inventory levels.

Affected by the macroeconomy, the recovery of domestic automobile consumption was slow, new car sales growth slowed, and demand for original equipment tires fell short of expectations; the used car market was sluggish, and replacement demand also failed to provide effective support. End-user demand was weak, while inventory pressure remained high.

As of mid-February, the average inventory turnover days for sample semi-steel tire manufacturers reached 44.41 days, and for all-steel tires, it reached 47.88 days, both higher than the same period last year. The situation was even more severe at the dealer level, with most dealers experiencing inventory turnover days exceeding 90 days, meaning it would take at least three months to clear existing inventory.

Against this backdrop, price reductions became a desperate measure for companies to alleviate inventory pressure and stimulate sales. Even before the Spring Festival, some semi-steel tire factories had already lowered prices by 5% to 8% to boost sales, and other companies followed suit, introducing flexible profit-sharing policies, with some even offering additional discounts to dealers making bulk purchases.

An industry insider bluntly stated, "Raising prices now is tantamount to suicide." If prices are raised rashly, distributors are likely to switch to lower-priced competitors, exacerbating inventory pressure for companies and potentially leading to their elimination from the market.

Even more devastating is the price war on e-commerce platforms, which is continuously driving down the overall price of tires. Taking the mainstream passenger car tire specification 205/55R16 as an example, the average price has been declining year-on-year, with some platforms even experiencing "clearance sales."

Cheng Shin tires of this specification, originally priced at 320 yuan per tire, are now only 199 yuan per tire; some niche brands have even seen prices fall below cost. While this "loss-leader" model can boost sales in the short term, it further compresses the overall profit margin of the industry, trapping more companies in a vicious cycle and exacerbating the "death cross" dilemma of rising raw material costs and falling product prices.

It is worth noting that market differentiation is becoming increasingly pronounced. Leading tire companies such as Guizhou Tire, Sailun, and Linglong, leveraging their technological accumulation and intelligent manufacturing advantages, have enhanced product competitiveness while controlling costs, and some high-end products are still able to maintain reasonable profits.

However, many small and medium-sized tire companies, lacking technological and scale support, are facing increasingly narrow survival spaces due to the dual pressures of rising costs and falling prices, with some already reducing or halting production. Looking ahead, if rubber prices remain high and market demand fails to recover effectively, the tire industry may face a profound reshuffling and consolidation.